Table S1. Observation data were gathered from many sources. The largest sources of data are listed first. Distributional data (Figure 1) were obtained from many sources, including government agencies, but also from online resources such as herbaria, botanical gardens, and plant databases.

Table S2. Prevalence data that was presented to the MaxEnt models for each modeling target. The sum of subspecies occurrences do not add to the amount of occurrences for the entire species, because the subspecies co-occur in several locations, which is counted as a single occurrence for the whole species.

Figure S1. Pinus contorta subspecies distributions were given a 1,000km buffer and were truncated in the areas where no survey data exists. The smaller (truncated) areas refer to the model-building or the training area. The models built were then projected to the full subspecies range i.e. entire 1000km buffer called “subsp. projection range”. Each subspecies has its own modeling and projection range (see text). The modeling range represents the areas, where presence-pseudoabsence data is available.

Figure S2. Pinus contorta subspecies distributions were projected for the current period of 1950–2000 and then combined afterwards (Equation 1). Subspecies' contorta a) murryana b) and c) latifolia were modeled within their habitats with a 1000km buffer and then projected to the North American continent.

Figure S3. Pinus contorta subspecies distributions were predicted for the future period of 2070–2100 and then combined afterwards (Equation 1). Subspecies contorta a) is predicted to shift up along coastal areas, whereas subsp. murrayana may lose a substantial amount of habitat, and latifolia should show a dramatic shift northwards.

ece3426-sup-0002-SourceCodeS1.zipZip archive77KSource code S1. The R and GRASS code used to prepare, analyze and visualize the data in this study. Documentation is within the code as well as acknowledgements of the author(s) of the code.

Please note: Wiley Blackwell is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.