These five authors contributed equally to this work.
Influence of air temperature on the first flowering date of Prunus yedoensis Matsum
Article first published online: 3 JAN 2014
© 2013 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Ecology and Evolution
Volume 4, Issue 3, pages 292–299, February 2014
How to Cite
Ecology and Evolution 2014; 4(3):292–299
- Issue published online: 4 FEB 2014
- Article first published online: 3 JAN 2014
- Manuscript Accepted: 9 NOV 2012
- Manuscript Revised: 30 OCT 2012
- Manuscript Received: 18 OCT 2012
- Natural Science Foundation of China. Grant Number: 31260120
- China Meteorological Administration. Grant Number: ccsf-10-04
- Accumulated degree days (ADD);
- base temperature;
- correlation coefficient;
- root mean square error;
- starting date
Climate change is expected to have a significant effect on the first flowering date (FFD) in plants flowering in early spring. Prunus yedoensis Matsum is a good model plant for analyzing this effect. In this study, we used a degree day model to analyze the effect of air temperatures on the FFDs of P. yedoensis at Wuhan University from a long-time series from 1951 to 2012. First, the starting date (=7 February) is determined according to the lowest correlation coefficient between the FFD and the daily average accumulated degree days (ADD). Second, the base temperature (=−1.2°C) is determined according to the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) between the observed and predicted FFDs based on the mean of 62-year ADDs. Finally, based on this combination of starting date and base temperature, the daily average ADD of every year was calculated. Performing a linear fit of the daily average ADD to year, we find that there is an increasing trend that indicates climate warming from a biological climatic indicator. In addition, we find that the minimum annual temperature also has a significant effect on the FFD of P. yedoensis using the generalized additive model. This study provides a method for analyzing the climate change on the FFD in plants' flowering in early spring.