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ece3541-sup-0001-AppendixS1.pdfapplication/PDF68KAppendix S1. Literature records and data sets accessed through the GBIF and OBIS databases.
ece3541-sup-0002-AppendixS2.docxWord document15KAppendix S2. Environmental variable selection for Fucus serratus. The table shows the positive effect of decreasing Niche Model complexity (included environmental rasters are marked with an x) on model performance, which is based on the two high-performance model selection criteria (Warren and Seifert 2011): (1) sample size corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc) (Akaike 1974), and (2) Bayesian information criterion (BIC) (Schwarz 1978). AICc/BIC values could not be calculated where the number of model parameters exceeded the number of occurrence sites. The environmental rasters included in the model of the highest performance (model 8, marked in bold) were selected for modeling the niche of F. serratus under present-day and future conditions and their model-contribution is listed in Table 1. DA, diffuse attenuation; Dissox, dissolved oxygen; PAR, photosynthetically active radiation; SAT, surface air temperature; SST, sea surface temperature.
ece3541-sup-0003-AppendixS3.docxWord document15KAppendix S3. Environmental variable selection for Fucus vesiculosus. The table shows the positive effect of decreasing Niche Model complexity (included environmental rasters are marked with an x) on model performance, which is based on the two high-performance model selection criteria (Warren and Seifert 2011): (1) sample size corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc) (Akaike 1974), and (2) Bayesian information criterion (BIC) (Schwarz 1978). AICc/BIC values could not be calculated where the number of model parameters exceeded the number of occurrence sites. The environmental rasters included in the model of highest performance (model 8, marked in bold) were selected for modeling the niche of F. vesiculosus under present-day and future conditions and their model-contribution is listed in Table 1. DA: diffuse attenuation, Dissox: dissolved oxygen, PAR: photosynthetically active radiation, SAT: surface air temperature, SST: sea surface temperature.
ece3541-sup-0004-AppendixS4.docxWord document15KAppendix S4. Environmental variable selection for Ascophyllum nodosum. The table shows the positive effect of decreasing Niche Model complexity (included environmental rasters are marked with an x) on model performance, which is based on the two high-performance model selection criteria (Warren and Seifert 2011): (1) sample size corrected Akaike AICc (Akaike 1974), and (2) Bayesian information criterion (BIC) (Schwarz 1978). The environmental rasters included in the model of highest performance (model 8, marked in bold) were used for modeling the niche of A. nodosum under present-day and future conditions and their model-contribution is listed in Table 1. DA, diffuse attenuation; Dissox, dissolved oxygen; PAR, photosynthetically active radiation; SAT, surface air temperature; SST, sea surface temperature.
ece3541-sup-0004-AppendixS5.pdfapplication/PDF577KAppendix S5. Response curves. Response curves showing the mean change in logistic prediction over ten replicate models in red and the range of two standard deviations as blue shade. They show MAXENT models that were built only with the respective environmental variable and represent how the predicted habitat suitability depends on each variable and on dependencies induced by their correlations with other variables. DA, Diffuse attenuation; SAT, Surface air temperature; SST, Sea surface temperature.
ece3541-sup-0004-AppendixS6.pdfapplication/PDF3015KAppendix S6. Fucus serratus abundance decline. Fucus serratus coverage captured in (A) 1999 and (B) 2010 at exactly the same site in Ribadeo (Northwest-coast of Spain; indicated as a red dot in the map inset in [B]). We estimated an abundance decline of ≥90% over this 11-year period.

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