High-resolution prediction of leaf onset date in Japan in the 21st century under the IPCC A1B scenario

Authors

  • Mayumi Hadano,

    1. College of Agrobiological Resource Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
    Current affiliation:
    1. Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan
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  • Kenlo Nishida Nasahara,

    Corresponding author
    1. Faculty of Life and Environment Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
    • College of Agrobiological Resource Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
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  • Takeshi Motohka,

    1. Faculty of Life and Environment Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
    2. Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Tsukuba, Japan
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  • Hibiki Muraoka Noda,

    1. Faculty of Life and Environment Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
    Current affiliation:
    1. Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
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  • Kazutaka Murakami,

    1. Faculty of Life and Environment Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
    Current affiliation:
    1. Center for Environmental Measurement and Analysis, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
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  • Masahiro Hosaka

    1. Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
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Correspondence

Kenlo Nishida Nasahara, Faculty of Life and Environment Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennoudai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan. Tel/Fax: +81-29-853-4897;

E-mail: 24dakenlo@gmail.com

Abstract

Reports indicate that leaf onset (leaf flush) of deciduous trees in cool-temperate ecosystems is occurring earlier in the spring in response to global warming. In this study, we created two types of phenology models, one driven only by warmth (spring warming [SW] model) and another driven by both warmth and winter chilling (parallel chill [PC] model), to predict such phenomena in the Japanese Islands at high spatial resolution (500 m). We calibrated these models using leaf onset dates derived from satellite data (Terra/MODIS) and in situ temperature data derived from a dense network of ground stations Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System. We ran the model using future climate predictions created by the Japanese Meteorological Agency's MRI-AGCM3.1S model. In comparison to the first decade of the 2000s, our results predict that the date of leaf onset in the 2030s will advance by an average of 12 days under the SW model and 7 days under the PC model throughout the study area. The date of onset in the 2090s will advance by 26 days under the SW model and by 15 days under the PC model. The greatest impact will occur on Hokkaido (the northernmost island) and in the central mountains.

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