High-resolution prediction of leaf onset date in Japan in the 21st century under the IPCC A1B scenario
Article first published online: 12 MAY 2013
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Ecology and Evolution
Volume 3, Issue 6, pages 1798–1807, June 2013
How to Cite
Ecology and Evolution 2013; 3(6): 1798–1807
- Issue published online: 12 JUN 2013
- Article first published online: 12 MAY 2013
- Manuscript Accepted: 1 APR 2013
- Manuscript Revised: 31 MAR 2013
- Manuscript Received: 25 JUL 2012
- Global Change Observation Mission. Grant Number: PI#102
- Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
- JSPS-KOSEF-NSFC A3 Foresight Program
- AGCM ;
- global warming;
- green–red vegetation index (GRVI);
- remote sensing
Reports indicate that leaf onset (leaf flush) of deciduous trees in cool-temperate ecosystems is occurring earlier in the spring in response to global warming. In this study, we created two types of phenology models, one driven only by warmth (spring warming [SW] model) and another driven by both warmth and winter chilling (parallel chill [PC] model), to predict such phenomena in the Japanese Islands at high spatial resolution (500 m). We calibrated these models using leaf onset dates derived from satellite data (Terra/MODIS) and in situ temperature data derived from a dense network of ground stations Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System. We ran the model using future climate predictions created by the Japanese Meteorological Agency's MRI-AGCM3.1S model. In comparison to the first decade of the 2000s, our results predict that the date of leaf onset in the 2030s will advance by an average of 12 days under the SW model and 7 days under the PC model throughout the study area. The date of onset in the 2090s will advance by 26 days under the SW model and by 15 days under the PC model. The greatest impact will occur on Hokkaido (the northernmost island) and in the central mountains.