High-resolution prediction of leaf onset date in Japan in the 21st century under the IPCC A1B scenario
Article first published online: 12 MAY 2013
© 2013 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Ecology and Evolution
Volume 3, Issue 6, pages 1798–1807, June 2013
How to Cite
Ecology and Evolution 2013; 3(6): 1798–1807
- Issue published online: 12 JUN 2013
- Article first published online: 12 MAY 2013
- Manuscript Accepted: 1 APR 2013
- Manuscript Revised: 31 MAR 2013
- Manuscript Received: 25 JUL 2012
- Global Change Observation Mission. Grant Number: PI#102
- Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
- JSPS-KOSEF-NSFC A3 Foresight Program
- 2004. Responses of spring phenology to climate change. New Phytol. 162:295–309. , , , , , , et al.
- 2000. A global prognostic scheme of leaf onset using satellite data. Glob. Change Biol. 6:709–725. , , , , and .
- 1975. Phenology of budburst in Douglas-fir related to provenance, photoperiod, chilling and flushing temperature. Bot. Gaz. 140:223–231. , and .
- 1983. Thermal time, chill days and prediction of budburst in Picea sitchensis. J. Appl. Ecol. 20:951–963. , and .
- 1986. Climatic warming, spring budburst and frost damage on trees. J. Appl. Ecol. 23:177–191. , and .
- 2000. A unified model for the budburst of trees. J. Theor. Biol. 207:337–347.
- 1998. Fitting models predicting dates of flowering of temperate-zone trees using simulated annealing. Plant Cell Environ. 21:455–466. , , and .
- 2008. Phenological timings of leaf budburst with climate change in Japan. Agric. For. Meteorol. 148:512–516. , and .
- 1996. Latitudinal and altitudinal variation of bud burst in western populations of sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.). Ann. For. Sci. 53:775–782. , , and .
- 1992. Predicting the timing of budburst in temperate trees. J. Appl. Ecol. 29:597–604. , and .
- IPCC. 2000. Emission scenarios. Special Reports. Cambridge Univ. Press, U.K.
- JMA. 2008. Global warming projection, 7. Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo.
- 1994a. A modelling analysis of the effect of climatic warming on the probability of spring frost damage to tree species in the Netherlands and Germany. Plant Cell Environ. 17:367–377.
- 1994b. Selecting a model to predict the onset of growth of Fagus sylvatica. J. Appl. Ecol. 31:172–181.
- 1995. Phenotypic plasticity of the phenology of seven European tree species in relation to climatic warming. Plant Cell Environ. 18:93–104.
- 1974. Apple fruit bud development and growth: analysis and an empirical model. Ann. Bot. 38:1013–1023.
- 2003. Climate change and extension of the Ginkgo biloba L. growing season in Japan. Glob. Change Biol. 9:1634–1642. , , , and .
- 1999. Growing season extended in Europe. Nature 397:659. , and .
- 1993. Interpolation by regularized spline with tension: I. Theory and implementation. Math. Geol. 25:641–655. , and .
- 2006. 20-km mesh global climate simulations using JMA-GSM model: mean climate states. J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. 84:165–185. , , , , , , et al.
- 2008. Estimation of future distribution of sea surface temperature and sea ice using CMIP3 multi-model ensemble mean. Techical Reports of the Meteorologicl Research Institute, 56. Available at http://www.mri-jma.go.jp/Publish/Technical/DATA/VOL_56/tec_rep_mri_56.pdf (accessed March 30, 2013). , , , and .
- 2009. Leaf phenology in 22 North American tree species during the 21st century. Glob. Change Biol. 15:961–975. , , , , , and .
- 2010. Applicability of green-red vegetation index for remote sensing of vegetation phenology. Remote Sens. 2:2369–2387. , , , and .
- 1989. Date of budburst of fifteen tree species in Britain following climatic warming. J. Appl. Ecol. 26:693–700. , , and .
- 1997. Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991. Nature 397:698–702. , , , , and .
- 2010. Field experiments to test the use of the normalized difference vegetation index for phenology detection. Agric. For. Meteorol. 150:152–160. , , , , and .
- 2005. Leaf flush timing of Fagus crenata from different habitats. Bull. Niigata Prefect. For. Res. Inst. 46:19–22 (in Japanese). , and .
- 1971. Dormancy of trees in winter. Science 171:29–36.
- 2006. Phenology of a northern hardwood forest canopy. Glob. Change Biol. 12:1174–1188. , , , , and .
- 2003. Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Glob. Change Biol. 9:161–185. , , , , , , et al.
- 2003. Ecological genetic study on the genetic resources and natural forest management of mizunara (Quercus mongolica var. grosserrata) in Hokkaido. Bull. For. Tree Breed. Cent. 19:25–120 (in Japanese).
- 2002. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416:389–395. , , , , , , et al.
- 1995. Variation in temperature sum requirement for flushing of beech provenances. Silvae Genet. 44:5–6. , , and .