Phenological overlap of interacting species in a changing climate: an assessment of available approaches
Article first published online: 22 JUL 2013
© 2013 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Ecology and Evolution
Volume 3, Issue 9, pages 3183–3193, September 2013
How to Cite
Ecology and Evolution 2013; 3(9): 3183–3193
- Issue published online: 8 SEP 2013
- Article first published online: 22 JUL 2013
- Manuscript Accepted: 31 MAY 2013
- Manuscript Revised: 29 MAY 2013
- Manuscript Received: 6 APR 2013
- National Institutes of Health. Grant Number: K12 GM000708
- National Science Foundation. Grant Number: DEB 0922080
- 2007. Predicting adaptation of phenology in response to climate change, an insect herbivore example. Glob. Change Biol. 13:1596–1604. , , , and .
- 1981. Reproductive synchrony of a tropical shrub: experimental studies on effects of pollinators and seed predators in Hybanthus prunifolius (Violaceae). Ecology 62:775–788.
- 2012. Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere. Nature 486:52–58. , , , , , , et al.
- 2012. A single climate driver has direct and indirect effects on insect population dynamics. Ecol. Lett. 15:502–508. , and .
- 1997. Effects of pollinators, herbivores, and seed predators on flowering phenology. Ecology 78:1624–1631.
- 2013. Plant-pollinator interactions over 120 years: loss of species, co-occurrence, and function. Science 339:1611–1615. , , and .
- 2000. A unified model for tree phenology. J. Theor. Biol. 707:337–347.
- 1941. Regional differentiation in plant species. Am. Nat. 75:231–250. , , and .
- 2007. Shifting plant phenology in response to global change. Trends Ecol. Evol. 22:357–365. , , , , and .
- 2012. Divergent responses to spring and winter warming drive community level flowering trends. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 109:9000–9005. , , and .
- 2011. Onset of summer flowering in a ‘Sky Island’ is driven by monsoon moisture. New Phytol. 191:468–479. , , and .
- 2012. Forecasting phenology: from species variability to community patterns. Ecol. Lett. 15:545–553. , , , , , , et al.
- 2008. Heterogeneous intra-annual climatic changes drive different phenological responses at two trophic levels. Clim. Res. 36:181–190. , , and .
- 2004. Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch. Nature 430:881–884. , and .
- 2012. Phenology drives mutualistic network structure and diversity. Ecol. Lett. 15:198–208. , , and .
- 2010. Sensitivity of plant–pollinator–herbivore communities to changes in phenology. Ecol. Model. 221:453–458. , , and .
- 2002. Rapid changes in flowering time in British plants. Science 296:1689–1691. , and .
- 2010. Consequences of variation in flowering time within and among individuals of Mertensia fusiformis (Boraginaceae), an early spring wildflower. Am. J. Bot. 97:38–48. , and .
- 2011. An examination of synchrony between insect emergence and flowering in Rocky Mountain meadows. Ecol. Monogr. 81:469–491. , and .
- 2012. Evolution of plant-pollinator mutualisms in response to climate change. Evol. Appl. 5:2–16. , , , and .
- 1999. Climate change and trophic interactions. Trends Ecol. Evol. 14:146–150. , , and .
- 2009. How does climate warming affect plant-pollinator interactions? Ecol. Lett. 12:184–195. , , , , and .
- 2012. Warming, CO2, and nitrogen deposition interactively affect a plant-pollinator mutualism. Ecol. Lett. 15:227–234. , , , , , and .
- Long-term trends mask variation in the direction and magnitude of short-term phenological shifts. Am. J. Bot. doi: 10.3732/ajb.1200490. , , , and . In press.
- 2008. Effects of climate change on phenology, frost damage, and floral abundance of montane wildflowers. Ecology 89:353–362.
- 2003. The role of photoperiodism in alpine plant development. Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res. 35:361–368. , and .
- 2010. Changes in snowmelt date and summer precipitation affect the flowering phenology of Erythronium grandiflorum (glacier lily; Liliaceae). Am. J. Bot. 97:1431–1437. , , and .
- 2011. Shifting phenology and abundance under experimental warming alters trophic relationships and plant reproductive capacity. Ecology 92:1201–1207. , , , and .
- 2007. Global warming and the disruption of plant-pollinator interactions. Ecol. Lett. 10:710–717. , , , and .
- 2006. European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Glob. Change Biol. 12:1969–1976. , , , , , , et al.
- 2006. Photographs and herbarium specimens as tools to document phenological changes in response to global warming. Am. J. Bot. 93:1667–1674. , , , and .
- 2008. How well do first flowering dates measure plant responses to climate change? The effects of population size and sampling frequency. J. Ecol. 96:1289–1296. , , and .
- 2010. The effects of phenological mismatches on demography. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 365:3177–3186. , , , and .
- 2011. A perspective on match/mismatch of phenology in community contexts. Oikos 121:489–495. , and .
- 2007. Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming. Glob. Change Biol. 13:1860–1872.
- 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37–42. , and .
- 2011. Experimental environmental change and mutualistic vs. antagonistic plant flower-visitor interactions. Perspect. Plant Ecol. Evol. Syst. 13:27–35. , , and .
- 2010. Global pollinator declines: trends, impacts and drivers. Trends Ecol. Evol. 25:345–353. , , , , , and .
- 2009. The role of botanical gardens in climate change research. New Phytol. 182:303–313. , and .
- 2011. Broadening the study of phenology and climate change. New Phytol. 191:307–309. , and .
- 2012. Uncovering, collecting, and analyzing records to investigate the ecological impacts of climate change: a template from Thoreau's Concord. Bioscience 62:170–181. , and .
- 2011. Effects of experimental shifts in flowering phenology on plant-pollinator interactions. Ecol. Lett. 14:69–74. , and .
- 2013. Population growth in a wild bird is buffered against phenological mismatch. Science 340:488–491. , , , , and .
- 2003. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421:57–60. , , , , , and .
- 2000. Phenology of British butterflies and climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 6:407–416. , and .
- 2012. From Caprio's lilacs to the USA National Phenology Network. Front. Ecol. Environ. 10:324–327. , , and .
- 2010. Phenological asynchrony between herbivorous insects and their hosts: signal of climate change or pre-existing adaptive strategy? Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 365:3161–3176. , and .
- 2003. Effects of climatic change on the phenology of butterflies in the northwest Mediterranean Basin. Glob. Change Biol. 9:1494–1506. , , and .
- 2010. Flowering phenology, fruiting success and progressive deterioration of pollination in an early-flowering geophyte. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 365:3187–3199.
- 2005. Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: the need for a yardstick. Proc. Biol. Sci. 272:2561–2569. , and .
- 1998. Warmer springs lead to mistimed reproduction in great tits (Parus major). Proc. Biol. Sci. 265:1867–1870. , , , and .
- 2003. Conservation impact of climatic variability on pollination of the federally endangered plant, Clematis socialis (Ranunculaceae). Southeast. Nat. 2:11–24. , , and .
- 2011. Temperature cues phenological synchrony in ant-mediated seed dispersal. Glob. Change Biol. 17:2444–2454. , , and .
- 1979. Pollinator availability as a determinant of flowering time in ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens). Oecologia 39:107–121.
- 2012. Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change. Nature 485:494–497. , , , , , , et al.
- 2010. Phenology, ontogeny and the effects of climate change on the timing of species interactions. Ecol. Lett. 13:1–10. , and .