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Figure S1. Predictions of monthly probability of birth inferred from climatic data in Asian elephants from Myanmar. Here, in contrast to the model in Figure 3, this model does not explicitly include birth month, but only considered the climatic data at birth (in addition to birth order and sex). The association with birth month was performed a posteriori: For each calf we calculated the predicted probability of birth based on climatic conditions at birth, and then computed the average probability of birth across all calves born in each month. The dashed line indicates the probability of birth if births were distributed equally across months.

Figure S2. Predictions of the probability that calves die between 1 and 5 years of age by birth months, in Asian elephants from Myanmar. Predictions were calculated for each calf individually and then averaged across birth months. As such, predictions captured the effect of sex, birth order, relatedness, location, and cohort effects.

Table S1. Summary table of model of the effect of month on probability of being born, in Asian elephants from Myanmar. Estimates are expressed on the logit scale. Intercept corresponds to a female later-born elephant born in January. Interaction effects are symbolized with “:.” The model was fitted to observations from 2350 elephants.

Table S2. Summary table of model of the effect of climate on probability of being born, in Asian elephants from Myanmar. Estimates are expressed on the logit scale. Intercept corresponds to a female later-born elephant. Interaction effects are symbolized with “:.” The model was fitted to observations from 829 elephants.

Table S3. Summary table of model of mortality from age 1 to 5 years in Asian elephants from Myanmar. Estimates are expressed on the logit scale. Intercept corresponds to a female elephant born to a parous mother. Interaction effects are symbolized with “:.” Variance estimates for the random effects were 0.11 for mother identity, 1.52 for region, and 2.45 for the birth year. The model was fitted to observations from 1887 elephants and included a total of 384 deaths.

Table S4. Stillbirths by month in Asian elephants from Myanmar. Births with cause of death reported as stillbirth by veterinarians in the necropsy report.

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