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Figure S1. Sampling effort during the first Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP1): logarithm of the number of checklists plus one per quarter-degree grid cell.

Figure S2. Sampling effort during the second Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP2): logarithm of the number of checklists plus one per quarter-degree grid cell.

Figure S3. Map showing detections of hadeda ibis (Bostrychia hagedash) during the two Southern African Bird Atlas Projects (SABAP1 and 2).

Figure S4. The probability of hadedas to persist in occupied grid cells between 1992 and 2007, and 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles.

Figure S5. The probability of hadedas colonizing unoccupied grid cells in southern Africa between 1992 and 2007, and 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles.

Figure S6. Unstructured random effects for hadeda occupancy probability during the first Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP1), and standard error.

Figure S7. Spatially structured random effects for detection probabilities of hadedas during the first Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP1).

Figure S8. Spatially structured random effects for detection probabilities of hadedas during the second Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP2).

Figure S9. Posterior distribution for the standard deviation in detection probabilities of hadedas among observers during the first Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP1, panel A) and during the second Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP1, panel B).

Appendix S1. BUGS code used to fit the model.

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