An empirical assessment of Bayesian melding for mapping ozone pollution


  • This work was supported by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada as well as by the Pacific Institute of the Mathematical Sciences.


This paper reviews the Bayesian melding approach while a companion technical report cited in the paper gives technical details about the Gibbs sampling algorithm used to implement the model and software developed for the research reported in this paper and available online can enable the method's use in other applications. This paper critically assesses the use of melding for mapping ozone concentration fields for possible future use in setting regulatory standards. This assessment has two stages. First a simulation study validates the computer code and goes on to investigate properties of the melding approach in situation where the “truth” is known. Then it is critically tested on a ozone mapping application using ozone data from the air quality system (AQS) database and simulated data from the multiscale air quality simulation platform (MAQSIP) chemical transportation model for ozone. In all cases, the melding is testing against Kriging, a simpler and more traditional way of mapping spatial fields. Conclusions and recommendations for future work are provided. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.