• Annan JD, Hargreaves JC. 2010. Reliability of the CMIP3 ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters 37: L02703. DOI: 10.1029/2009GL041994.
  • Bracegirdle TJ, Stephenson DB. 2012. More precise predictions of future polar winter warming estimated by multi-model ensemble regression. Climate Dynamics, published online, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1330-3.
  • Buser CM, Künsh HR, Lüthi D, Wild M, Schär C. 2009. Bayesian multi-model projection of climate: bias assumptions and interannual variability. Climate Dynamics 33: 849868.
  • Chandler RE. 2011. Exploiting strength, discounting weakness: combining information from multiple climate simulators. Research Report No. 311. Department of Statistical Science, University College London. (Available from:
  • Chandler RE, Rougier J, Collins M. 2010. Climate change: making certain what the uncertainties are. Significance 7(1): 912.
  • Collins M, Booth BBB, Bhaskaran B, Harris G, Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Webb MJ. 2011. A comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles: model errors, feedbacks and forcings. Climate Dynamics 36: 17371766.
  • Collins M, Chandler RE, Cox PM, Huthnance J, Rougier JC, Stephenson DB. 2012. Perspective on quantifying future climate change. Nature Climate Change 2: 403409.
  • Cox PM, Stephenson DB. 2007. A changing climate for prediction. Science 317: 207208.
  • Furrer R, Sain SR, Nychka D, Meehl GA. 2007. Multivariate Bayesian analysis of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 14(3): 249266.
  • Goldstein M. 1986. Exchangeable belief structures. Journal of the American Statistical Association 81: 971976.
  • Hilbert D. 1902. Mathematical problems. Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society 8: 437479.
  • Ho CK, Stephenson DB, Collins M, Ferro CAT, Brown SJ. 2012. Calibration strategies: a source of additional uncertainty in climate change projections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93: 2126. DOI:
  • Kettleborough JA, Booth BBB, Stott PA, Allen MR. 2007. Estimates of uncertainty in prediction of global mean surface temperature. Journal of Climate 20(5): 843855.
  • Knutti R, Furrer R, Tebaldi C, Cermak J, Meehl GA. 2010a. Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models. Journal of Climate 23: 27392758.
  • Knutti R, Abramowitz G, Collins M, Eyring V, Gleckler P, Hewitson B, Mearns L. 2010b. Good practice guidance paper on assessing and combining multi model climate projections. In Meeting Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Expert Meeting on Assessing and Combining Multi Model Climate Projections, Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Midgley P (eds). IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit, University of Bern: Bern, Switzerland.
  • Leith NA, Chandler RE. 2010. A framework for interpreting climate model outputs. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C 59(2): 279296.
  • Masson D, Knutti R. 2011. Climate model genealogy. Geophysical Research Letters 38: L08703.
  • Randall DA, Wood RA, Bony S, Colman R, et al. 2007. Climate models and their evaluation. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds). Cambridge UP: Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  • Rougier JC. 2007. Probabilistic inference for future climate using an ensemble of climate model evaluations. Climatic Change 81: 247264.
  • Rougier JC, Sexton DMH. 2007. Inference in ensemble experiments. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 365: 21332143.
  • Rougier JC, Goldstein M, House L. 2012. Second-order exchangeability analysis for multi-model ensembles. Statistics Research Report 12:01, University of Bristol., in submission.
  • Schervish MJ. 1995. Theory of Statistics. Springer: New York. Corrected second printing, 1997.
  • Sexton DMH, Murphy JM, Collins M, Webb ME. 2012. Multivariate probabilistic projections using imperfect climate models part I: outline of methodology. Climate Dynamics 38(11–12): 25132542.
  • Smith RL, Tebaldi C, Nychka D, Mearns LO. 2009. Bayesian modeling of uncertainty in ensembles of climate models. Journal of the American Statistical Association 104(485): 97116.
  • Stephenson DB, Balmaseda M, Coelho CAS, Doblas-Reyes FJ. 2005. Forecast assimilation: a unified framework for the combination of multi-model weather and climate predictions. Tellus A 57(3): 253264.
  • Tebaldi C, Knutti R. 2007. The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 15(365): 20532075.