This article is published in Environmetrics as a special issue on Modern quantitative methods for environmental risk assessment, edited by Lelys Bravo de Guenni, Cómputo Científico y Estadística, Universidad Simón Bolívar, Valle de Sartenejas. Carretera Baruta-Hoyo de La Puerta, Caracas, Miranda 1080-A, Venezuela, and Susan J. Simmons, Mathematics and Statistics, UNCW, 601 South College Road, Wilmington, NC 28403, U.S.A.
Special Issue Paper
Bayesian spatial extreme value analysis to assess the changing risk of concurrent high temperatures across large portions of European cropland†
Article first published online: 23 OCT 2012
Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Special Issue: Modern quantitative methods for environmental risk assessment
Volume 23, Issue 8, pages 638–648, December 2012
How to Cite
Shaby, B. A. and Reich, B. J. (2012), Bayesian spatial extreme value analysis to assess the changing risk of concurrent high temperatures across large portions of European cropland. Environmetrics, 23: 638–648. doi: 10.1002/env.2178
- Issue published online: 25 DEC 2012
- Article first published online: 23 OCT 2012
- Manuscript Accepted: 4 OCT 2012
- Manuscript Revised: 1 OCT 2012
- Manuscript Received: 19 APR 2012
- max-stable process;
- climate change
There is strong evidence that extremely high temperatures are detrimental to the yield and quality of many economically and socially critical crops. Fortunately, the most deleterious conditions for agriculture occur rarely. We wish to assess the risk of the catastrophic scenario in which large areas of croplands experience extreme heat stress during the same growing season. Applying a hierarchical Bayesian spatial extreme value model that allows the distribution of extreme temperatures to change in time both marginally and in spatial coherence, we examine whether the risk of widespread extremely high temperatures across agricultural land in Europe has increased over the last century. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.