Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata

Authors

  • Rebecca A. O'Leary,

    Corresponding author
    1. Telethon Institute for Child Health Research, Centre for Child Health Research, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6007, Australia
    • School of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Queensland University of Technology, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane QLD 4000, Australia.
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Samantha Low Choy,

    1. Telethon Institute for Child Health Research, Centre for Child Health Research, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6007, Australia
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Justine V. Murray,

    1. School of Integrative Biology, Goddard Building (8), St Lucia Campus, University of Queensland, Brisbane QLD 4072, Australia
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Mary Kynn,

    1. 8 Robinson Rd South, Ocean View Qld 4521, Australia
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Robert Denham,

    1. Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, 80 Meiers Road, Indooroopilly QLD 4068, Queensland, Australia
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Tara G. Martin,

    1. Centre for Applied Conservation Research, Department of Forest Sciences, 3041-2424 Main Mall, University of British Columbia, Vancouver B.C. V6T 1Z4, Canada
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Kerrie Mengersen

    1. Telethon Institute for Child Health Research, Centre for Child Health Research, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6007, Australia
    Search for more papers by this author

Abstract

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ancillary