Boundary crossing and non-linear theory in earth-system sciences – a proof of concept based on tsunami and post-eruption scenarios on Java Island, Indonesia

ABSTRACT

Although volcanic eruptions are well-known to be the trigger of some weather and climatic changes, land-cover changes by pyroclastic-flows and lahars do not get this recognition, neither do major hazards such as tsunami. These two earth processes are even lesser considered as being able to modify other earth processes they are not directly connected to, such as landslides or river discharge in non-connected basins more than a hundred kilometres away. In this contribution the authors argue that these ideas are mainly driven by the process of being ‘educated’ in a single academic discipline and once put to the test interactions and retroactions between earth processes and atmospheric processes are far more reaching than commonly thought. For this study, the site of Java Island (Indonesia) was chosen to conduct (1) an analysis of a major tsunami impact – in the same area as the 2006 Java tsunami and (2) an analysis of the post-eruption impacts of Merapi Volcano after a major eruption – excluding any ejecta in the atmosphere for the sake of the demonstration. The atmospheric feedback simulations were conducted using the regional climate model (RegCM-4) with calibration from weather stations in Java Island. As a result, both simulations have proven that large scale deposits of pyroclasts (not introducing the ejectas sent in the atmosphere) and tsunamis can have outstanding impacts on the atmospheric situation and the bio-geomorphologic evolution of the landscape in the following weeks to months. Interestingly enough these impacts are not limited to the area impacted by the earth process and the effect are not linear in time as they work following thresholds. These rainfalls ‘tele-impacts’ are important enough to, in turn, modify earth-surface processes in areas remote from the original phenomenon. This system acts in the same manner as a famous butterfly in Africa that could trigger a hurricane on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.