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Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability

Authors


Ray C. Fair, Cowles Foundation and International Center for Finance, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA. E-mail: ray.fair@yale.edu

ABSTRACT

This paper estimates, using stochastic simulation and a multi-country macroeconometric model, the fraction of the forecast error variance of output changes and the fraction of the forecast error variance of inflation that are due to unpredictable asset price changes. The results suggest that between about 25% and 37% of the forecast error variance of output growth over eight quarters is due to asset price changes and between about 33% and 60% of the forecast error variance of inflation over eight quarters is due to asset price changes. These estimates provide limits to the accuracy that can be expected from macroeconomic forecasting. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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