Hurricane Lifespan Modeling through a Semi-Markov Parametric Approach
Article first published online: 14 MAY 2012
Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Journal of Forecasting
Volume 32, Issue 4, pages 369–384, July 2013
How to Cite
Masala, G. (2013), Hurricane Lifespan Modeling through a Semi-Markov Parametric Approach. J. Forecast., 32: 369–384. doi: 10.1002/for.2245
- Issue published online: 19 JUN 2013
- Article first published online: 14 MAY 2012
- Manuscript Accepted: 12 MAR 2012
- Manuscript Revised: 5 JAN 2012
- Manuscript Received: 17 JUL 2011
- semi-Markov process;
- transition probabilities;
- waiting time distributions;
- evolution equation;
- Monte Carlo simulation;
- Saffir–Simpson scale;
- hurricane derivatives;
- Carvill index
The estimation of hurricane intensity evolution in some tropical and subtropical areas is a challenging problem. Indeed, the prevention and the quantification of possible damage provoked by destructive hurricanes are directly linked to this kind of prevision. For this purpose, hurricane derivatives have been recently issued by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, based on the so-called Carvill hurricane index.
In our paper, we adopt a parametric homogeneous semi-Markov approach. This model assumes that the lifespan of a hurricane can be described as a semi-Markov process and also it allows the more realistic assumption of time event dependence to be taken into consideration. The elapsed time between two consecutive events (waiting time distributions) is modeled through a best-fitting procedure on empirical data. We then determine the transition probabilities and so-called crossing states probabilities. We conclude with a Monte Carlo simulation and the model is validated through a large database containing real data coming from HURDAT. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.