Short-Term Forecasts of French GDP: A Dynamic Factor Model with Targeted Predictors


Correspondence to: Marie Bessec, Université Paris-Dauphine, Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny, 75775 Paris CEDEX 16, France. E-mail:


In recent years, factor models have received increasing attention from both econometricians and practitioners in the forecasting of macroeconomic variables. In this context, Bai and Ng (Journal of Econometrics 2008; 146: 304–317) find an improvement in selecting indicators according to the forecast variable prior to factor estimation (targeted predictors). In particular, they propose using the LARS-EN algorithm to remove irrelevant predictors. In this paper, we adapt the Bai and Ng procedure to a setup in which data releases are delayed and staggered. In the pre-selection step, we replace actual data with estimates obtained on the basis of past information, where the structure of the available information replicates the one a forecaster would face in real time. We estimate on the reduced dataset the dynamic factor model of Giannone et al. (Journal of Monetary Economics 2008; 55: 665–676) and Doz et al. (Journal of Econometrics 2011; 164: 188–205), which is particularly suitable for the very short-term forecast of GDP. A pseudo real-time evaluation on French data shows the potential of our approach. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.