Do Experts’ SKU Forecasts Improve after Feedback?
Version of Record online: 7 NOV 2013
Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Journal of Forecasting
Volume 33, Issue 1, pages 69–79, January 2014
How to Cite
Legerstee, R. and Franses, P. H. (2014), Do Experts’ SKU Forecasts Improve after Feedback?. J. Forecast., 33: 69–79. doi: 10.1002/for.2274
- Issue online: 19 DEC 2013
- Version of Record online: 7 NOV 2013
- Manuscript Accepted: 23 APR 2013
- Manuscript Revised: 4 FEB 2013
- Manuscript Received: 18 JAN 2012
- model forecasts;
- expert forecasts;
- judgmental adjustment;
- outcome feedback;
- performance feedback;
- cognitive process feedback;
- task properties feedback
We analyze the behavior of experts who quote forecasts for monthly SKU-level sales data, where we compare data before and after the moment that experts received different kinds of feedback on their behavior. We have data for 21 experts located in as many countries who make SKU-level forecasts for a variety of pharmaceutical products for October 2006 to September 2007. We study the behavior of the experts by comparing their forecasts with those from an automated statistical program, and we report the forecast accuracy over these 12 months. In September 2007 these experts were given feedback on their behavior and they received training at the headquarters office, where specific attention was given to the ins and outs of the statistical program. Next, we study the behavior of the experts for the 3 months after the training session, i.e. October 2007 to December 2007. Our main conclusion is that in the second period the experts’ forecasts deviated less from the statistical forecasts and that their accuracy improved substantially. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.