Pricing VIX futures: Evidence from integrated physical and risk-neutral probability measures



This study derives closed-form solutions to the fair value of VIX (volatility index) futures under alternate stochastic variance models with simultaneous jumps both in the asset price and variance processes. Model parameters are estimated using an integrated analysis of integrated volatility and VIX time series from April 21, 2004 to April 18, 2006. The stochastic volatility model with price jumps outperforms for the short-dated futures, whereas additionally including a state-dependent volatility jump can further reduce out-of-sample pricing errors for other futures maturities. Finally, adding volatility jumps enhances hedging performance except for the short-dated futures on a daily-rebalanced basis. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:1175–1217, 2007