The authors would like to thank two anonymous referees and Bob Webb (editor). Bujar Huskaj would also like to thank Hossein Asgharian, Hans Byström, Karl Larsson, Frederik Lundtofte, Kristian R. Miltersen, Birger Nilsson, Magnus Wiktorsson, and Anders Wilhelmsson.
A Term Structure Model for VIX Futures
Article first published online: 15 MAR 2012
© 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Journal of Futures Markets
Volume 33, Issue 5, pages 421–442, May 2013
How to Cite
Huskaj, B. and Nossman, M. (2013), A Term Structure Model for VIX Futures. J. Fut. Mark., 33: 421–442. doi: 10.1002/fut.21550
- Issue published online: 5 FEB 2013
- Article first published online: 15 MAR 2012
- Manuscript Accepted: 18 DEC 2011
- Manuscript Received: 3 NOV 2010
This study develops a term structure model for VIX futures. Instead of deriving the VIX futures price from a model for the instantaneous variance of the S&P 500 or a model for the VIX, the VIX futures price dynamics are specified exogenously. The empirical features of VIX futures returns (positive skewness, excess kurtosis, and a decreasing volatility term structure for longer term expirations) are captured by assuming that they are normal inverse Gaussian distributed and scaled by a volatility function that is dependent on the maturity. The usefulness of the resulting model is illustrated in two applications: risk management (via calculating value at risk (VaR)) and asset pricing (via pricing hypothetical VIX options). The results show that the model provides a good fit for the empirical term structure of VIX futures, produces good VaR estimates, and is promising for use in pricing VIX options. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 33:421-442, 2013