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Dynamic Dependence Between Liquidity and the S&P 500 Index Futures-Cash Basis

Authors


  • The authors are grateful for helpful comments and suggestions by an anonymous referee, the editor, Bob Webb, and participants at the 2009 FMA Meetings. Li Yang gratefully acknowledges the financial support of the Australian School of Business at University of New South Wales. Chunyang Zhou would like to acknowledge NSFC funding support (no. 71001071).

Correspondence author, School of Banking & Finance, Australian School of Business, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia. Tel: +61 2 9385 7936, Fax: +61 2 9385 6347, e-mail: l.yang@unsw.edu.au

Abstract

Roll, Schwartz, and Subrahmanyam (2007) investigate the linear relationship between stock market liquidity and index futures-cash basis. We extend their work and examine nonlinear relationship between the two variables of interests, in particular, tail dependence. We find that the tail dependence is asymmetric and varies significantly over times. The lower tail dependence between changes in (il) liquidity measured by bid–ask spread of S&P 500 index and changes in absolute value of S&P 500 index futures-cash basis is almost zero and the upper tail dependence is positive and significantly different from zero. The results suggest that an increase in liquidity is not always associated with a decrease in basis. However, a reduction in liquidity is significantly associated with an increase in basis. At the extreme situation, the link between changes in basis and changes in liquidity can break down. Arbitrage profits cannot be realized and hedging becomes less effective. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 33:327-342, 2013

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