Evolution and future of the Lusi mud eruption inferred from ground deformation
Article first published online: 21 MAR 2013
©2013. American Geophysical Union. All rights reserved.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 40, Issue 6, pages 1089–1092, 28 March 2013
How to Cite
2013), Evolution and future of the Lusi mud eruption inferred from ground deformation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1089–1092, doi:10.1002/grl.50189., , , and (
- Issue published online: 27 APR 2013
- Article first published online: 21 MAR 2013
- Accepted manuscript online: 26 JAN 2013 10:31AM EST
- Manuscript Accepted: 22 JAN 2013
- Manuscript Received: 17 JAN 2013
- National Science Foundation
 The ongoing eruption of the Lusi mud volcano in East Java, Indonesia offers the unprecedented opportunity to study a large eruption from its beginning to its eventual end. We use new observations of ground deformation obtained from multitemporal interferometric analysis of L-band synthetic aperture radar data to show that Lusi will stop erupting much sooner than previously anticipated. Using principal component analysis, we find that the rate of ground deformation, and by implication, pressure in the mud source region, has been decaying exponentially with an e-folding time scale of 2.1 ± 0.4 years. We anticipate that discharge will decrease to 10% of the present rate in 5 years.