Influence of the intensification of the major oceanic moisture sources on continental precipitation

Authors

  • Luis Gimeno,

    Corresponding author
    1. Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias de Ourense, Universidad de Vigo, Ourense, Spain
    • Corresponding author: L. Gimeno, Environmental Physics Laboratory, Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias de Ourense, Universidad de Vigo, Campus As Lagoas s/n, ES-32004 Ourense, Spain. (l.gimeno@uvigo.es)

    Search for more papers by this author
  • Raquel Nieto,

    1. Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias de Ourense, Universidad de Vigo, Ourense, Spain
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Anita Drumond,

    1. Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias de Ourense, Universidad de Vigo, Ourense, Spain
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Rodrigo Castillo,

    1. Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias de Ourense, Universidad de Vigo, Ourense, Spain
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Ricardo Trigo

    1. CGUL, IDL, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
    2. Departamento de Engenharias, Universidade Lusófona, Lisbon, Portugal
    Search for more papers by this author

Abstract

[1] In this study, we address two key issues in the hydrological cycle that have remained elusive: 1) to what extent can we expect climate change to affect the transport of moisture? and, in particular, 2) how will the changes in the sources’ intensity (that is, more evaporation) affect the distribution of continental precipitation? This was achieved using a multimodel ensemble that allowed delimiting those oceanic areas where climate change will likely lead to an increase in evaporation (E) minus precipitation (P). Finally, a sophisticated Lagrangian model was used to identify which continental regions will be affected by changes in precipitation (E − P < 0) originating in each oceanic moisture source. We find that in boreal winter, wide sectors of Europe, Asia, Middle East, South America, and southern Africa are affected, but North America emerges as the most affected continental region. In austral winter, the largest changes are confined to northern and Central America.

Ancillary