A canonical response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from CMIP5 models
Article first published online: 26 JUN 2013
©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 40, Issue 12, pages 3163–3169, 28 June 2013
How to Cite
2013), A canonical response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3163–3169, doi:10.1002/grl.50420., , and (
- Issue published online: 18 JUL 2013
- Article first published online: 26 JUN 2013
- Accepted manuscript online: 30 MAR 2013 08:32AM EST
- Manuscript Revised: 26 MAR 2013
- Manuscript Accepted: 26 MAR 2013
- Manuscript Received: 12 FEB 2013
- Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program. Grant Number: CATER 2012–2062
- global warming
 In this study, we find from analyses of projections of 14 CMIP5 models a robust, canonical global response in rainfall characteristics to a warming climate. Under a scenario of 1% increase per year of CO2 emission, the model ensemble projects globally more heavy precipitation (+7 ± 2.4%K−1), less moderate precipitation (−2.5 ± 0.6%K−1), more light precipitation (+1.8 ± 1.3%K−1), and increased length of dry (no-rain) periods (+4.7 ± 2.1%K−1). Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy precipitation over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, especially the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Asian monsoon regions, and more dry periods over the land areas of the subtropics and the tropical marginal convective zones. Our results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce a global adjustment in circulation and moisture availability manifested in basic changes in global precipitation characteristics, including increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.