Expected value of information and decision making in HTA
Article first published online: 15 SEP 2006
Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume 16, Issue 2, pages 195–209, February 2007
How to Cite
Eckermann, S. and Willan, A. R. (2007), Expected value of information and decision making in HTA. Health Econ., 16: 195–209. doi: 10.1002/hec.1161
- Issue published online: 17 JAN 2007
- Article first published online: 15 SEP 2006
- Manuscript Accepted: 24 MAY 2006
- Manuscript Received: 15 JUN 2005
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. Grant Number: 44868-03
- value of information;
- decision making;
- opportunity cost of delay;
- cost of reversal;
- optimal trial design
Decision makers within a jurisdiction facing evidence of positive but uncertain incremental net benefit of a new health care intervention have viable options where no further evidence is anticipated to:
- (1)adopt the new intervention without further evidence;
- (2)adopt the new intervention and undertake a trial; or
- (3)delay the decision and undertake a trial.
Value of information methods have been shown previously to allow optimal design of clinical trials in comparing option (2) against option (1), by trading off the expected value and cost of sample information. However, this previous research has not considered the effect of cost of reversal on expected value of information in comparing these options. This paper demonstrates that, where a new intervention is adopted, the expected value of information is reduced under optimal decision making with costs of reversing decisions. Further, the paper shows that comparing expected net gain of optimally designed trials for option (2) vs (1) conditional on cost of reversal, and (3) vs (1) conditional on opportunity cost of delay allow systematic identification of an optimal decision strategy and trial design. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.