What happens to value of information measures as the number of decision options increases?
Article first published online: 20 AUG 2010
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume 20, Issue 7, pages 853–863, July 2011
How to Cite
Barton, P. (2011), What happens to value of information measures as the number of decision options increases?. Health Econ., 20: 853–863. doi: 10.1002/hec.1651
- Issue published online: 3 APR 2011
- Article first published online: 20 AUG 2010
- Manuscript Accepted: 25 JUN 2010
- Manuscript Revised: 30 APR 2010
- Manuscript Received: 4 JUL 2008
- cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier;
- value of information;
- decision making;
Aim: To explore what happens to the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) as an increasingly large number of decision options is considered.
Methods: A stylised model of screening for a hypothetical cancer. The model was used to test different possible ages for ‘once in a lifetime’ screening under a variety of assumptions about model parameter uncertainty. Initial model runs only considered screening at ages which are multiples of 16 years, then multiples of 8 years were allowed, then 4 years, etc.
Results: Effects of more refined choice sets on the cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier (CEAF) and EVPI are shown. The CEAF collapses to zero for threshold incremental cost-effectiveness ratios at which screening at some age is preferred to no screening, while the EVPI stabilises at a non-zero figure.
Conclusions: The CEAF is likely to be highly dependent on the choice of options when these are a selection from a very large set of possible options. In contrast, the EVPI can be reasonably approximated by a model with a slightly limited choice set. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.