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Keywords:

  • dynamic programming;
  • economic evaluation;
  • real options

ABSTRACT

We present a two-period framework, which combines real option and decision-theoretic approaches to health technology assessment under uncertainty. By viewing adoption, treatment and research decisions as a single economic project, we illustrate how their key dimensions affect optimal rules. We consider the results in relation to the existing literature and argue that developments in this direction could contribute substantially to efficiency gains in resource allocation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.