Prognosis: A variable parameter. Dynamic prognostic modeling in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma
Version of Record online: 14 FEB 2011
Copyright © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Head & Neck
Volume 34, Issue 1, pages 34–41, January 2012
How to Cite
van der Schroeff, M. P., Steyerberg, E. W., Wieringa, M. H., Langeveld, T. P. M., Molenaar, J. and Baatenburg de Jong, R. J. (2012), Prognosis: A variable parameter. Dynamic prognostic modeling in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. Head Neck, 34: 34–41. doi: 10.1002/hed.21693
- Issue online: 13 DEC 2011
- Version of Record online: 14 FEB 2011
- Manuscript Accepted: 22 OCT 2010
- Manuscript Revised: 8 SEP 2010
- Manuscript Received: 31 MAR 2010
- head and neck squamous cell carcinoma;
- prognostic models;
- time effects;
In general, the estimated prognosis of patients with cancer is based on patient characteristics known at the time of diagnosis and presented as if a lifetime verdict. However, the prognosis of patients with cancer who survive the first critical years changes, along with the prognosis for those with local or regional recurrences or distant metastases.
This study concerns 2927 patients with a primary head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). We developed prognostic models after initial treatment and at different time points during follow-up.
The developed models show the effects of survival time, recurrences, and distant metastasis during follow-up. The C-statistics ranged from 0.76 to 0.69.
Prognosis is dynamic: the passage of time and the occurrence of life events change the predicted probabilities of survival. The models enhance our insight in the effect of recurrences and metastasis during follow-up and could be used for better patient counseling. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck, 2012