Extramural cross-validation of the mayo primary biliary cirrhosis survival model establishes its generalizability

Authors

  • Patricia M. Grambsch Ph.D.,

    Corresponding author
    1. Division of Gastroenterology and Internal Medicine and Section of Biostatistics, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, Rochester, Minnesota 55905
    • Mayo Clinic, 200 First St. SW, Rochester, Minnesota 55905
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  • E. Rolland Dickson,

    1. Division of Gastroenterology and Internal Medicine and Section of Biostatistics, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, Rochester, Minnesota 55905
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  • Marshall Kaplan,

    1. Division of Gastroenterology and Internal Medicine and Section of Biostatistics, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, Rochester, Minnesota 55905
    Current affiliation:
    1. Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, New England Medical Center Hospitals, Boston, Massachusetts 02111
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  • Gene Lesage,

    1. Division of Gastroenterology and Internal Medicine and Section of Biostatistics, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, Rochester, Minnesota 55905
    Current affiliation:
    1. Department of Gastroenterology, Scott and White Clinic, Temple, Texas 76508
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  • Thomas R. Fleming,

    1. Division of Gastroenterology and Internal Medicine and Section of Biostatistics, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, Rochester, Minnesota 55905
    Current affiliation:
    1. Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195
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  • Alice L. Langworthy

    1. Division of Gastroenterology and Internal Medicine and Section of Biostatistics, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, Rochester, Minnesota 55905
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Abstract

The generalizability of the Mayo model for predicting survival in individual primary biliary cirrhosis patients without liver transplantation was tested and confirmed. The model was applied to a data base of patients from the New England Medical Center Hospitals (n = 141) and the Scott and White Clinic (n = 35) and found to predict their survival accurately. It was also shown to be accurate for Mayo primary biliary cirrhosis patients with very advanced disease (n = 30), those with less than a 33% chance of surviving 12 months. The analyses confirmed that the addition of histologic stage did not significantly improve the predictive power of the model (p > 0.10). We suggest that the Mayo model is a practical tool for clinical management and decision making.

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