Research Article

SWAT model application and prediction uncertainty analysis in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

  1. Shimelis G. Setegn1,*,
  2. Ragahavan Srinivasan2,
  3. Assefa M. Melesse3,
  4. Bijan Dargahi1

Article first published online: 17 SEP 2009

DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7457

Issue

Hydrological Processes

Hydrological Processes

Volume 24, Issue 3, pages 357–367, 30 January 2010

Additional Information

How to Cite

Setegn, S. G., Srinivasan, R., Melesse, A. M. and Dargahi, B. (2010), SWAT model application and prediction uncertainty analysis in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia. Hydrol. Process., 24: 357–367. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7457

Author Information

  1. 1

    Hydraulic Engineering Division, Department of Land & Water Resources Engineering, The Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden

  2. 2

    Spatial Science Laboratory, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, USA

  3. 3

    Department of Environmental Studies, Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA

*Hydraulic Engineering Division, Department of Land & Water Resources Engineering, The Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden.

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 18 JAN 2010
  2. Article first published online: 17 SEP 2009
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 17 JUL 2009
  4. Manuscript Received: 14 NOV 2008

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Keywords:

  • SWAT;
  • Lake Tana;
  • hydrological modelling;
  • SUFI-2;
  • GLUE;
  • ParaSol

Abstract

Lake Tana Basin is of significant importance to Ethiopia concerning water resources aspects and the ecological balance of the area. Many years of mismanagement, wetland losses due to urban encroachment and population growth, and droughts are causing its rapid deterioration. The main objective of this study was to assess the performance and applicability of the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model for prediction of streamflow in the Lake Tana Basin, so that the influence of topography, land use, soil and climatic condition on the hydrology of Lake Tana Basin can be well examined. The physically based SWAT model was calibrated and validated for four tributaries of Lake Tana. Sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2), parameter solution (ParaSol) and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) calibration and uncertainty analysis methods were compared and used for the set-up of the SWAT model. The model evaluation statistics for streamflows prediction shows that there is a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows that was verified by coefficients of determination and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0·5. The hydrological water balance analysis of the basin indicated that baseflow is an important component of the total discharge within the study area that contributes more than the surface runoff. More than 60% of losses in the watershed are through evapotranspiration. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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