Get access

Regression models for daily stream temperature simulation: case studies for the river Elbe, Germany

Authors

  • Hagen Koch,

    Corresponding author
    1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, PO Box 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
    2. Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus, Chair Hydrology and Water Resources Management, PO Box 101344, D-03013 Cottbus, Germany
    • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Uwe Grünewald

    1. Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus, Chair Hydrology and Water Resources Management, PO Box 101344, D-03013 Cottbus, Germany
    Search for more papers by this author

Abstract

Daily stream temperatures are needed in a number of analyses. Such analyses might focus on aquatic organisms or industrial activities. To protect aquatic systems, industrial activities, for example, water withdrawals or discharges, are sometimes restricted. To evaluate where new industrial settings should be placed or if climate change will affect already existing industrial settings, the simulation of stream temperature is needed. Stream temperature models with weekly or monthly time scale might not be sufficient for this kind of analysis.

Different regression models to simulate daily stream temperature for the river Elbe (Germany) are developed and their performance is estimated. For the calibration period the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NSC) for the simplest model is 0·97, and the root mean squared error (RMSE) is 1·48 °C. For the most sophisticated model the NSC also is 0·97. However, the RMSE is 1·32 °C. For the validation period the NSC for the simplest model is 0·96, and the RMSE is 1·45 °C. The NSC for the most sophisticated model is 0·97, and the RMSE is 1·25 °C. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ancillary