Probabilistic evaluation of flood hazard in urban areas using Monte Carlo simulation
Article first published online: 21 FEB 2012
Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume 26, Issue 26, pages 3962–3972, 30 December 2012
How to Cite
Aronica, G. T., Franza, F., Bates, P. D. and Neal, J. C. (2012), Probabilistic evaluation of flood hazard in urban areas using Monte Carlo simulation. Hydrol. Process., 26: 3962–3972. doi: 10.1002/hyp.8370
- Issue published online: 17 DEC 2012
- Article first published online: 21 FEB 2012
- Accepted manuscript online: 28 OCT 2011 05:04PM EST
- Manuscript Accepted: 5 OCT 2011
- Manuscript Received: 24 MAR 2011
- flood hazard;
- urban flooding;
- Monte Carlo simulations;
The goal of the presented research was the derivation of flood hazard maps, using Monte Carlo simulation of flood propagation at an urban site in the UK, specifically an urban area of the city of Glasgow. A hydrodynamic model describing the propagation of flood waves, based on the De Saint Venant equations in two-dimensional form capable of accounting for the topographic complexity of the area (preferential outflow paths, buildings, manholes, etc.) and for the characteristics of prevailing imperviousness typical of the urban areas, has been used to derive the hydrodynamic characteristics of flood events (i.e. water depths and flow velocities). The knowledge of the water depth distribution and of the current velocities derived from the propagation model along with the knowledge of the topographic characteristics of the urban area from digital map data allowed for the production of hazard maps based on properly defined hazard indexes. These indexes are evaluated in a probabilistic framework to overcome the classical problem of single deterministic prediction of flood extent for the design event and to introduce the concept of the likelihood of flooding at a given point as the sum of data uncertainty, model structural error and parameterization uncertainty. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.