Impact of climate change on streamflow in the arid Shiyang River Basin of northwest China
Article first published online: 18 NOV 2011
Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume 26, Issue 18, pages 2733–2744, 30 August 2012
How to Cite
Wang, Z., Ficklin, D. L., Zhang, Y. and Zhang, M. (2012), Impact of climate change on streamflow in the arid Shiyang River Basin of northwest China. Hydrol. Process., 26: 2733–2744. doi: 10.1002/hyp.8378
- Issue published online: 13 AUG 2012
- Article first published online: 18 NOV 2011
- Accepted manuscript online: 3 NOV 2011 02:05PM EST
- Manuscript Accepted: 12 OCT 2011
- Manuscript Received: 5 MAY 2011
- climate change;
- Shiyang River Basin
Climate change may significantly affect the hydrological cycle and water resource management, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In this paper, output from the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model were used in conjunction with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to analyse the effects of climate change on streamflow of the Xiying and Zamu rivers in the Shiyang River basin, an important arid region in northwest China. After SWAT model calibration and validation, streamflow in the Shiyang River Basin was simulated using the PRECIS climate model data for greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 (high emission rate) and B2 (low emission rate) developed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Monthly streamflow and hydrological extremes were compared for present-day years (1961–1990), the 2020s (2011–2040), 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). The results show that mean monthly streamflow in Shiyang River Basin generally increased in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s between 0.7–6.1% at the Zamu gauging station and 0.1–4.8% at the Xiying gauging station. The monthly minimum streamflow increased persistently, but the maximum monthly streamflows increased in the 2020s and slightly decreased in the 2050s and 2080s. This study provides valuable information for guiding future water resource management in the Shiyang River Basin and other arid and semi-arid regions in China. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.