Prediction of temperature variation within a snowpack in open areas and under different canopy covers


Abdurrahim Aydın, Faculty of Forestry, Düzce University, Konuralp Campus 81620, Düzce, Turkey.



Snow temperature is a major component of many physical processes in a snowpack. The temperature and the change in temperature across a layer have a dominant effect on physical properties of snow grains as well as its hardness, strength, and failure resistance. In this study, temperature and snow cover thickness were measured during the snow season of 2007–2008 in 11 elevation classes and in three different sampling locations, one in an open area and two under different forest canopy covers for each class along Kartalkaya road, Bolu. Each sampling site was visited 44 times to collect data including snow depth, snow surface temperature, ground temperature, and temperature within snowpack at 20-cm intervals. Seven different models are developed to determine snowpack temperature variations under forest canopy covers and in an open area with different leaf area index values. All models were performed using a multilayer perceptron (MP) method for the Bolu–Kartalkaya area, Turkey. MP approach constitutes a standard form of neural network modeling and can modify two-layer linear perceptron methods using three and more layers. The ability of MP is to handle complex nonlinear interactions, which ease the natural process of modeling. This method can overcome complex computations using neuron networks, and they can easily nonlinearly link input and output variables. The predictive errors are determined on the basis of mean absolute error and mean square error criteria. The Nash–Sutcliffe sufficiency score showing compliance between observed and predicted values is also calculated. According to the mean absolute error, the mean square error, and the Nash–Sutcliffe sufficiency score criteria, the predictive errors are within reasonable error intervals, justifying the use of the developed MP models for engineering applications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.