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Keywords:

  • LARS-WG;
  • 24-h design rainfall depth;
  • climate change;
  • Qiantang River Basin;
  • extreme precipitation;
  • uncertainty

Abstract

The frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological or hydrological events such as floods and droughts in China have been influenced by global climate change. The water problem due to increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events in the humid areas has gained great attention in recent years. However, the main challenge in the evaluation of climate change impact on extreme events is that large uncertainty could exist. Therefore, this paper first aims to model possible impacts of climate change on regional extreme precipitation (indicated by 24-h design rainfall depth) at seven rainfall gauge stations in the Qiantang River Basin, East China. The Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator is adopted to downscale the global projections obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) to regional climate data at site scale. The weather generator is also checked for its performance through three approaches, namely Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, comparison of L-moment statistics and 24-h design rainfall depths. Future 24-h design rainfall depths at seven stations are estimated using Pearson Type III distribution and L-moment approach. Second, uncertainty caused by three GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the future periods 2020s (2011–2030), 2055s (2046–2065) and 2090s (2080–2099) is investigated. The final results show that 24-h design rainfall depth increases in most stations under the three GCMs and emission scenarios. However, there are large uncertainties involved in the estimations of 24-h design rainfall depths at seven stations because of GCM, emission scenario and other uncertainty sources. At Hangzhou Station, a relative change of −16% to 113% can be observed in 100y design rainfall depths. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.