Present address: Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, 11 Innovation Boulevard, Saskatoon, SK S7N 3H5, Canada
Prediction of the impact of climate change on drought: an evaluation of six UK catchments using two stochastic approaches
Article first published online: 11 MAY 2012
Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume 27, Issue 11, pages 1600–1614, 30 May 2013
How to Cite
Chun, K. P., Wheater, H. and Onof, C. (2013), Prediction of the impact of climate change on drought: an evaluation of six UK catchments using two stochastic approaches. Hydrol. Process., 27: 1600–1614. doi: 10.1002/hyp.9259
- Issue published online: 9 MAY 2013
- Article first published online: 11 MAY 2012
- Accepted manuscript online: 13 FEB 2012 02:07PM EST
- Manuscript Accepted: 9 DEC 2011
- Manuscript Received: 18 JUN 2010
- generalized linear model (GLM);
- autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA);
Under future climate scenarios, possible changes of drought patterns pose new challenges for water resources management. For quantifying and qualifying drought characteristics in the UK, the drought severity indices of six catchments are investigated and modelled by two stochastic methods: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and the generalized linear model (GLM) approach. From the ARIMA models, autocorrelation structures are first identified for the drought index series, and the unexplained variance of the series is used to establish empirical relationships between drought and climate variables. Based on the ARIMA results, mean sea level pressure and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation index are found to be significant climate variables for seasonal drought forecasting. Using the GLM approach, occurrences and amounts of rainfall are simulated with conditioning on climate variables. From the GLM-simulated rainfall for the 1980s and 2080s, the probabilistic characteristics of the drought severity are derived and assessed. Results indicate that the drought pattern in the 2080s is less certain than for the 1961–1990 period, based on the Shannon entropy, but that droughts are expected to be more clustered and intermittent. The 10th and 50th quantiles of drought are likely higher in the 2080s scenarios, but there is no evidence showing the changes in the 90th quantile extreme droughts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.