Long-term change of daily and multi-daily precipitation in southern Sweden

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Abstract

Daily rain series from southern Sweden with records dating back to the 1870s have been analysed to investigate the trends of daily and multi-day precipitation of different return periods with emphasis on the extremes. Probabilities of extreme storms were determined as continuously changing values based on 25 years of data. An extra set of data was used to investigate changes in Skåne, the southernmost peninsula of Sweden. Another 30-year data set of more than 200 stations of a dense gauge network in Skåne was used to investigate the relation between very large daily rainfall and annual precipitation.

The annual precipitation has increased significantly all over southern Sweden due to increased winter precipitation. There is a trend of increasing maximum annual daily precipitation at only one station, where the annual maximum often occurs in winter. The number of events with a short return period is increasing, but the number of more extreme events has not increased. Daily and multi-daily design storms of long return periods determined from extreme value analysis with updating year by year are not higher today than during the last 100 years. The largest daily storms are not related to stations with annual rainfall but seem to occur randomly. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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