This study describes the projection of sudden recovery from hypoxia in Tokyo Bay. Three different horizontal resolution of the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation models (with a 20-km mesh resolution), and eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3 models) outputs were applied to project the occurrence of strong negative (south–west) winds, which enhance rapid recovery from hypoxia in the bay. South–west wind energy, KEw, was successfully reproduced in all models by using bias correction based on a cumulative distribution function from the present day (1980–1998). The MRI-AGCM3.1S with a 20-km mesh resolution suggested an increase in the number of days with the square of southwesterly winds > 100 m2 s−2, but the other 10 models showed no significant difference in the future. As a result, it appears likely that recovery from hypoxia will not occur more frequently in the future if we assume that the other meteorological and hydrological conditions remain constant. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.