Future change of the potential landslide disasters as evaluated from precipitation data simulated by MRI-AGCM3.1

Authors

  • Yuichiro Oku,

    Corresponding authorCurrent affiliation:
    1. Osaka City Institute of Public Health and Environmental Sciences, Tennoji-ku, Osaka, Japan.
    • Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan
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  • Eiichi Nakakita

    1. Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan
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Correspondence to: Yuichiro Oku, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan.

E-mail: oku@storm.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the number of potential landslide disasters in the future due to the effect of climate change in Japan using atmospheric global atmospheric models. To achieve this, two indices of precipitation R1.5 and R72 were adopted for the evaluation of the number of occurrences in the near future and/or in the future. The potential of shallow landslide occurrence will increase 20% at the end of the 21st century compared with present-day potential, and that of deep-seated landslides will increase up to 30%. According to statistical analysis of future changes of precipitation indices, significant change to the number of shallow slides was to be found areas across most areas of Japan. As for deep-seated landslides, however, changes are statistically significant only in western Japan and some areas of the Tohoku region. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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