Out-of-sample validation for structured expert judgment of Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie
Article first published online: 18 SEP 2014
© 2014 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management
Volume 10, Issue 4, pages 522–528, October 2014
How to Cite
Cooke, R. M., Wittmann, M. E., Lodge, D. M., Rothlisberger, J. D., Rutherford, E. S., Zhang, H. and Mason, D. M. (2014), Out-of-sample validation for structured expert judgment of Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie. Integr Environ Assess Manag, 10: 522–528. doi: 10.1002/ieam.1559
- Issue published online: 18 SEP 2014
- Article first published online: 18 SEP 2014
- Accepted manuscript online: 9 JUL 2014 05:35AM EST
- Manuscript Accepted: 30 JUN 2014
- Manuscript Revised: 23 APR 2014
- Manuscript Received: 20 FEB 2014
- Asian carp;
- Classical model;
- Cross validation;
- Invasive species;
- Structured expert judgment
Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is used to quantify the uncertainty of nonindigenous fish (bighead carp [Hypophthalmichthys nobilis] and silver carp [H. molitrix]) establishment in Lake Erie. The classical model for structured expert judgment model is applied. Forming a weighted combination (called a decision maker) of experts' distributions, with weights derived from performance on a set of calibration variables from the experts' field, exhibits greater statistical accuracy and greater informativeness than simple averaging with equal weights. New methods of cross validation are applied and suggest that performance characteristics relative to equal weighting could be predicted with a small number (1–2) of calibration variables. The performance-based decision maker is somewhat degraded on out-of-sample prediction, but remained superior to the equal weight decision maker in terms of statistical accuracy and informativeness. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2014;10:522–528. © 2014 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.