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Development and evaluation of a dynamic model that projects population biomarkers of methylmercury exposure from local fish consumption

Authors

  • Caroline Chan,

    Corresponding author
    1. Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health and Information Sciences, University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky 40202, USA
    • Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health and Information Sciences, University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky 40202, USA.
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  • John F Heinbokel,

    1. Health Management and System Sciences, School of Public Health and Information Sciences, University of Louisville and Center for Interdisciplinary Excellence in System Dynamics, Barboursville, Virginia, USA
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  • John A Myers,

    1. Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Information Sciences, University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky, USA
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  • Robert R. Jacobs

    1. Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health and Information Sciences, University of Louisville, 485 East Gray Street, Louisville, Kentucky, USA
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Abstract

A dynamic model was developed to project Hg concentrations in common biomarkers of exposure in response to changes in Hg concentrations in predatory fish from local waters. The model predicts biomarkers in susceptible populations for intake rates representing the mean, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles of populations of interest. The biomarkers the model calculates are blood methylmercury, total hair Hg, and fetal blood methylmercury. Decision makers can use the model to determine the degree of reduction in fish tissue Hg levels necessary to protect the health of susceptible populations. Biomarker output was calibrated with literature sources. Output was then compared to additional literature sources to evaluate model function. Projected biomarkers were not different from literature sources. The model can be used as a tool to understand the impact of local fish consumption on susceptible populations. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2011;7:624–635. © 2011 SETAC

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