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Keywords:

  • Time trends;
  • esophageal cancer;
  • gastric cancer;
  • cardia cancer

Abstract

Since 1970, the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma has increased rapidly in Western populations, whereas the incidences of gastric cardia and gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma have increased moderately and declined, respectively. The Swedish Cancer Register and Total Population Register provided opportunities for a valid update of incidence trends of these tumors including the year 2008. Joinpoint regression was used to assess any shifts in trends with calendar time. The esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence reached a peak in 2005, and then showed a decrease. During the period 2001–2008, the joinpoint regression analysis indicates a virtually stable incidence (annual percentage increase 1.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] −2.7 to 5.1). The cardia adenocarcinoma incidence has slightly decreased after 1990 (annual percentage decrease −1.0, 95% CI −1.6 to −0.3). The decreasing incidence of gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma has continued steadily during recent years (annual percentage decrease −4.9 (95% CI −5.2 to −4.7). Thus, an encouraging break in the rising incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma has been seen in Sweden since 2005, whereas the corresponding incidences of gastric cardia and non-cardia adenocarcinoma have been stable and decreasing, respectively.