Get access

A STOCHASTIC APPROACH TO ANALYSE WATER MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS AT THE RIVER BASIN LEVEL

Authors

  • Jianxin Mu,

    Corresponding author
    1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China
    • National Centre for Efficient Irrigation Engineering and Technology Research, Beijing, China
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Shahbaz Khan,

    1. UNESCO Division of Water Sciences, Paris, France
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Qunchang Liu,

    1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China
    2. National Centre for Efficient Irrigation Engineering and Technology Research, Beijing, China
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Di Xu,

    1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China
    2. National Centre for Efficient Irrigation Engineering and Technology Research, Beijing, China
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Jingdong Xu,

    1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China
    2. National Centre for Efficient Irrigation Engineering and Technology Research, Beijing, China
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Wenhao Wang

    1. College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest Agriculture and Forest University, Yangling, China
    Search for more papers by this author

  • Une approche stochastique pour analyser les scénarios gestion de l'eau au niveau du bassin versant d'un grand fleuve.

Correspondence to: Dr. Jianxin Mu, State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, A-1 Fuxing Road, Beijing, 100038, China. E-mail: jianxin.mu@gmail.com.

ABSTRACT

Quantitative analysis techniques have gained a great deal of popularity with decision-makers and analysts in recent years, and this is also the case in the hydrology sector. In this paper, the Basin-wide Holistic Integrated Water Assessment (BHIWA) model developed by the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) was updated by the author to simulate the water balance of the Yellow River Basin in China, as well as to analyse the impacts of land and water use on return flows of this basin under past (1980), present (2000), and future (2030 and 2050) conditions. Stochastic analysis was then carried out using the Monte Carlo simulation method, by randomly selecting sets of values for the probability distributions in the cell values and formulas to quantify the risks in terms of water quantity and quality resulting from return flow. The model amply demonstrates the serious water shortage situation in the future. Developing the strategy of water-saving measures would greatly enhance the efficiency of irrigation water use, and decrease water withdrawal for irrigation. In addition to this, a possible opportunity to transfer water from the Yangtze River to the Yellow River also came to light. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

RÉSUMÉ

Les techniques d'analyse quantitative ont acquis une grande popularité auprès des décideurs et des analystes, ces dernières années, et c'est aussi le cas dans le secteur de l'hydrologie. Dans cet article, l'évaluation holistique intégrée de l'eau à l'échelle du bassin (BHIWA) élaboré par la Commission internationale des irrigations et du drainage (CIID) a été mis à jour par l'auteur pour simuler le bilan de l'eau du bassin du fleuve Jaune en Chine, ainsi que pour analyser les impacts de l'utilisation des terres et de l'eau sur les flux de retour de ce bassin dans les conditions passées (1980), présentes (2000), et futures (2030 et 2050). L'analyse stochastique a été faite en utilisant la méthode de simulation de Monte-Carlo, en choisissant au hasard des jeux de valeurs pour les distributions de probabilité dans les valeurs de cellule et dans les formules pour quantifier les risques en termes de quantité et de qualité de l'eau résultant de l'écoulement de retour. Le modèle démontre amplement la situation de grave pénurie d'eau à l'avenir. L'élargissement de la stratégie d'économies d'eau améliorerait l'efficacité de l'utilisation de l'eau d'irrigation en diminuant le prélèvement d'eau pour l'irrigation. De plus, l'opportunité de transférer l'eau du fleuve Yangtze au fleuve Jaune a également été mise en exergue. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ancillary