SPATIAL FILTERING, MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND THE SPEED OF INCOME CONVERGENCE IN EUROPE
Article first published online: 14 MAY 2012
Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Journal of Applied Econometrics
Themed Issue: Themes in Applied Microeconometrics
Volume 28, Issue 4, pages 720–741, June/July 2013
How to Cite
Crespo Cuaresma, J. and Feldkircher, M. (2013), SPATIAL FILTERING, MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND THE SPEED OF INCOME CONVERGENCE IN EUROPE. J. Appl. Econ., 28: 720–741. doi: 10.1002/jae.2277
- Issue published online: 25 APR 2013
- Article first published online: 14 MAY 2012
- Manuscript Revised: 14 DEC 2011
- Manuscript Received: 22 DEC 2009
In this paper we put forward a Bayesian model averaging method aimed at performing inference under model uncertainty in the presence of potential spatial autocorrelation. The method uses spatial filtering in order to account for uncertainty in spatial linkages. Our procedure is applied to a dataset of income per capita growth and 50 potential determinants for 255 NUTS-2 European regions. We show that ignoring uncertainty in the type of spatial weight matrix can have an important effect on the estimates of the parameters attached to the model covariates. After integrating out the uncertainty implied by the choice of regressors and spatial links, human capital investments and transitional dynamics related to income convergence appear as the most robust determinants of growth at the regional level in Europe. Our results imply that a quantitatively important part of the income convergence process in Europe is influenced by spatially correlated growth spillovers. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.