A Theoretical Foundation for the Nelson–Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models
Article first published online: 27 NOV 2013
Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Journal of Applied Econometrics
Volume 30, Issue 1, pages 97–118, January/February 2015
How to Cite
2015), A Theoretical Foundation for the Nelson–Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models, J. Appl. Econ., 30, pages 97–118, doi: 10.1002/jae.2360(
- Issue published online: 28 JAN 2015
- Article first published online: 27 NOV 2013
- Manuscript Revised: 1 JUL 2013
- Manuscript Received: 5 MAR 2012
Yield curve models within the popular Nelson–Siegel class are shown to arise from formal low-order Taylor approximations of the generic Gaussian affine term structure model. Extensive empirical testing on government and bank-risk yield curve datasets for the five largest industrial economies shows that the arbitrage-free three-factor (Level, Slope, Curvature) Nelson–Siegel model generally provides an acceptable representation of the data relative to the three-factor Gaussian affine term structure model. The combined theoretical foundation and empirical evidence means that Nelson–Siegel models may be applied and interpreted from the perspective of Gaussian affine term structure models that already have firm statistical and theoretical foundations in the literature. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.