Article

Long-term fracture prediction by bone mineral assessed at different skeletal sites

  1. Dr. L. Joseph Melton III1,*,
  2. Elizabeth J. Atkinson1,
  3. W. Michael O'Fallon1,
  4. Heinz W. Wahner2,
  5. B. Lawrence Riggs3

Article first published online: 3 DEC 2009

DOI: 10.1002/jbmr.5650081010

Issue

Journal of Bone and Mineral Research

Journal of Bone and Mineral Research

Volume 8, Issue 10, pages 1227–1233, October 1993

Additional Information

How to Cite

Melton, L. J., Atkinson, E. J., O'Fallon, W. M., Wahner, H. W. and Riggs, B. L. (1993), Long-term fracture prediction by bone mineral assessed at different skeletal sites. J Bone Miner Res, 8: 1227–1233. doi: 10.1002/jbmr.5650081010

Author Information

  1. 1

    Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, Rochester, Minnesota

  2. 2

    Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, Rochester, Minnesota

  3. 3

    Division of Endocrinology/Metabolism and Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, Rochester, Minnesota

*Section of Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, 200 First Street Southwest, Rochester, MN 55905

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 3 DEC 2009
  2. Article first published online: 3 DEC 2009
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 20 MAR 1993
  4. Manuscript Revised: 16 MAR 1993
  5. Manuscript Received: 1 OCT 1992

Funded by

  • National Institutes of Health. Grant Numbers: AR 27065, AR 30582
  • United States Public Health Service

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Abstract

Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured at the lumbar spine and cervical and intertrochanteric regions of the proximal femur by dual-photon absorptiometry and bone mineral content was assessed at the distal and midradius by single-photon absorptiometry in an age-stratified random sample of 304 Rochester, Minnesota women aged 30–94 years. Over follow-up extending to 10 years (median 8.3 years), 93 women experienced 163 new fractures. After adjusting for age, these bone mineral measurements predicted the likelihood of any incident fracture due to moderate trauma, with relative hazards varying from 1.4 to 1.6 per SD decrease in baseline bone mineral. A 1 SD decrease in lumbar spine BMD increased the risk of a new vertebral fracture comparably to a 17 year increase in age; a 1 SD decrease in femoral BMD was comparable to a 13–14 year increase in age on the risk of a hip fracture. We conclude that bone mineral measurements made at a variety of skeletal sites can predict the occurrence for at least 8–10 years of moderate trauma fractures of the sort that might be related to osteoporosis.

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