Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models
Article first published online: 22 AUG 2007
Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society
International Journal of Climatology
Special Issue: Downscaling and hydrology: progress in assessing impacts and adaptation to climate change
Volume 27, Issue 12, pages 1595–1610, October 2007
How to Cite
Blenkinsop, S. and Fowler, H. J. (2007), Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models. Int. J. Climatol., 27: 1595–1610. doi: 10.1002/joc.1538
- Issue published online: 27 SEP 2007
- Article first published online: 22 AUG 2007
- Manuscript Accepted: 17 MAR 2007
- Manuscript Revised: 3 MAR 2007
- Manuscript Received: 26 SEP 2006
- European Union FP6 Integrated Project AquaTerra. Grant Number: (505428)
- EU. Grant Number: (EVk2-CT2001-00132)
- 2000. Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change. Nature 417: 617–620. , , , , .
- 2004. Reservoir-induced hydrological changes in the Ebro River basin (NE Spain). Journal of Hydrology 290: 117–136. , , .
- 2004. Joint probability of precipitation and discharge deficits in the Netherlands. Water Resources Research 40: W12508, DOI: 10.1029/2004WR003265. , .
- 2005. Assessment of Climatology in Climate Models, AquaTerra Deliverable No. H1.4. Project No. 505428 (GOCE). Newcastle University: Newcastle-upon-Tyne. , .
- 2007. Changes in drought frequency, severity and duration for the British Isles projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models. Journal of Hydrology (in press). , .
- 2001. The analysis of the Standardized Precipitation Index in the Mediterranean area: regional patterns. Annali Di Geofisica 44: 979–993. , , , .
- 2000. Drought events in Europe. In Drought and Drought Mitigation in Europe, VogtJV, SommaF (eds). Kluwer: Dordrecht; 7–20. .
- 1994. Summer moisture availability over Europe, 1892–1991: an analysis based on the Palmer drought severity index. International Journal of Climatology 14: 475–506. , , .
- 2000. Precipitation intensity trends in northern Italy. International Journal of Climatology 20: 1017–1031. , , , .
- 1992. The long-term context for the current hydrological drought. In IWEM Conference on the Management of Scarce Water Resources. , , .
- 1994. The 1988–92 drought in its historical perspective. Journal of the Institution of Water and Environmental Management 8: 39–51. , , .
- 1998. The role of the Spanish Committee of the International Association of Hydrogeologists in the management and protection of Spain's groundwater resources. Hydrogeology Journal 6: 15–23. , , .
- 2004. A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. Journal of Hydrometeorology 5: 1117–1130. , , .
- 2001. ARIDE—assessment of the regional impact of droughts in Europe. Final Report to the European Union. ENV4-CT97-0553. Institute of Hydrology, Freiburg: Germany. , .
- 2007. An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections. Climatic Change 81: 53–70. , , , , , , , , , .
- 2001. Assessing the effects of land use changes on floods in the Meuse and Oder catchment. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Part B-Hydrology Oceans and Atmosphere 26: 593–599. , , , , .
- 2000. Multi-annual drought episodes in the Mediterranean (Valencia region) from 1950–1996. A spatio-temporal analysis. International Journal of Climatology 20: 1599–1618. , , .
- 2005. A global evaluation of streamflow drought characteristics. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 2: 2427–2464. , , , .
- 2002. A weather-type approach to analysing water resource drought in the Yorkshire region from 1881 to1998. Journal of Hydrology 262: 177–192. , .
- 2004. Future increases in UK water resource drought projected by a regional climate model. In Proceedings of the BHS International Conference on Hydrology: Science & Practice for the 21st Century, London, Vol. 1, 12–16 July 2004; 15–21. , .
- 2007. Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. International Journal of Climatology this issue. , , .
- 2002. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research 19: 193–212. , , , , , , .
- 1997. Drought, climate change and water resources in north east England. In BHS 6th National Hydrology Symposium, Salford, UK; 13–22. , , .
- 1997. Summer drought in Northern midlatitudes in a time-dependent CO2 climate experiment. Journal of Climate 10: 662–686. , , .
- 2006. An assessment of trends in UK runoff and low flows using a network of undisturbed catchments. International Journal of Climatology 26: 1237–1253. , .
- 2001. Europe's water stress today and in the future. In Eurowasser—Model-Based Assessment of European Water Resources and Hydrology in the Face of Global Change, Kassel World Water Series Report No 5, LehnerB, HenrichsT, DöllP, AlcamoJ (eds). Kassel: Germany; 7.1–7.16. , .
- 2001. Regional drught characteristics. In ARIDE—Assessment of the Regional Impact of Droughts in Europe, DemuthS, StahlK (eds). Institute of Hydrology: Freiburg; 56–68. , .
- 2001. Have streamflow droughts in Europe become more severe or frequent? International Journal of Climatology 21: 317–333. , , , .
- 2000. Transboundary cooperation in shared river basins: experiences from the Rhine, Meuse and North Sea. Water Policy 2: 83–97. , , .
- 1997. Precipitation variability and drought. In Climates of the British Isles: Present, Past and Future, HulmeM, BarrowE (eds). Routledge, London; 197–219. , , .
- 2003. Future climate impact on the productivity of sugar beet (beta vulgaris L.) in Europe. Climatic Change 58: 93–108. , , , .
- 2006. Global and regional climate in 2005. Weather 61: 215–224. , , .
- 1998. Spatial and temporal characterization of annual extreme droughts in Catalonia (northeast Spain). International Journal of Climatology 18: 93–110. , .
- 2001. Europe's droughts today and in the future. In Eurowasser—Model-based Assessment of European Water Resources and Hydrology in the Face of Global Change, Kassel World Water Series Report No 5, LehnerB, HenrichsT, DöllP, AlcamoJ (eds). Kassel: Germany; 7.1–7.16. , .
- 2006. Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in Europe: a continental, integrated analysis. Climatic Change 75: 273–299. , , , , .
- 2002. A drought climatology for Europe. International Journal of Climatology 22: 1571–1592. , .
- 2000. Synoptic situations causing drought in the Mediterranean basin. In Drought and Drought Mitigation in Europe, VogtJV, SommaF (eds). Kluwer: Dordrecht; 91–102. .
- 2000. Agricultural drought—a practical approach to definition, assessment and mitigation strategies. In Drought and Drought Mitigation in Europe, VogtJV, SommaF (eds). Kluwer: Dordrecht; 63–75. .
- 1999. Agriculture, water resources and water policies in Italy. In FEEM Working Papers, no 39, Milan. .
- 1999. Reconstruction of heavy rainfall events on the Southern part of the Alpine region from 1868 to the end of the 19th century. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Part B-Hydrology Oceans and Atmosphere 24: 637–642. , , , .
- 2004. A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901–2000) and 16 scenarios. Tyndall Working Paper 55, Tyndall Centre, UEA, Norwich. , , , , .
- 1983. Precipitation over northern Italy: a description by means of principal components analysis. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 22: 1738–1752. , , .
- 1999a. Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part I: development of a 1961–90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. Journal of Climate 12: 829–856. , , .
- 1999b. Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part II: development of 1901–96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. Journal of Climate 13: 2217–2238. , , .
- 1985. A comparative performance analysis of three meteorological drought indices. Journal of Climatology 5: 655–664. .
- 2005. Representing model uncertainty in weather and climate prediction. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 33: 163–193. , , , , , .
- 2004. Climate change, land use change and runoff prediction in the Rhine-Meuse basins. River Research and Applications 20: 229–241. , , , , .
- 1998. The utility of a drought index for assessing the drought hazard in Devon and Cornwall, South West England. Meteorological Applications 5: 359–372. , .
- 2001. Precipitation seasonality in eastern and southern coastal Spain. International Journal of Climatology 21: 219–247. , , .
- 2000. Drought definition: a hydrological perspective. In Drought and Drought Mitigation in Europe, VogtJV, SommaF (eds). Kluwer: Dordrecht; 23–48. , .
- 2004. North Atlantic oscillation influence on precipitation, river flow and water resources in the Iberian Peninsula. International Journal of Climatology 24: 925–944. , , , , , .
- 2006. Summer moisture variability across Europe. Journal of Climate 19: 2818–2834. , , , .
- 2003. Estimating extreme dry-spell risk in the middle Ebro valley (northeastern Spain): a comparative analysis of partial duration series with a general Pareto distribution and annual maxima series with a Gumbel distribution. International Journal of Climatology 23: 1103–1118. , .
- 2005. Hydrological response to different time scales of climatological drought: an evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Index in a mountainous Mediterranean basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 9: 523–533. , .
- 1997. IPCC Special Report. The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability. Summary for policymakers. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. , , .