The El Nino-Southern Oscillation and winter precipitation extremes over India



Daily rainfall data for the winter season October–December for the long period of 102 years 1901–2002 over southeast peninsular India have been used to study the characteristics of daily precipitation extremes. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events do not show statistically significant long-term trend. The relationship of El Nino-southern oscillation index with these extremes shows that this index can be used to predict frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, 4–6 months in advance. However spell lengths of continuous wet/dry days are not modulated by variations in Pacific sea surface temperatures. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society