Climate change prediction over complex areas: spatial variability of uncertainties and predictions over the Pyrenees from a set of regional climate models
Article first published online: 6 DEC 2007
Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society
International Journal of Climatology
Volume 28, Issue 11, pages 1535–1550, September 2008
How to Cite
López-Moreno, J. I., Goyette, S. and Beniston, M. (2008), Climate change prediction over complex areas: spatial variability of uncertainties and predictions over the Pyrenees from a set of regional climate models. Int. J. Climatol., 28: 1535–1550. doi: 10.1002/joc.1645
- Issue published online: 18 AUG 2008
- Article first published online: 6 DEC 2007
- Manuscript Accepted: 2 OCT 2007
- Manuscript Revised: 1 AUG 2007
- Manuscript Received: 12 MAR 2007
- 2000. GIS-based construction of base line climatologies for the Mediterranean using terrain variables. Climate Research 14(2): 115–127. , .
- 1986. A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. Journal of Climatology 6: 661–675. .
- 1999. The effect of climate change on hydrological regimes in Europe: a continental perspective. Global Environmental Change 9: 5–23. .
- 2003. Simulation of impact of projected climate change on wheat in India. International Journal of Climatology 23: 693–705. , .
- 2005. Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature 438: 3003–3309. , , .
- 1994. Statistical relationships between topography and precipitation patterns. Journal of Climate 7: 1305–1315. , , .
- 2003. Climatic change in mountain regions: a review of possible impacts. Climatic Change 59: 5–31. .
- 2005. Warm winter spells in the Swiss Alps: strong heat waves in a cold season? Geophysical Research Letters 32: L01812. .
- 1996. Regional behaviour of minimum temperatures in Switzerland for the period 1979–1993. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 53: 231–244. , .
- 2003. Snow pack in the Swiss Alps under changing climatic conditions. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 74: 19–31. , , .
- 1998. Principles of Geographical Information Systems. Oxford University Press: Oxford. , .
- 2001. A synthesis of regional climate change simulations-A Scandinavian perspective. Geophysical Research Letters 28(6): 1003–1006. , , , , , .
- 1994. A statistical-topographical model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 33: 140–158. , , .
- 1990. Thermal seasonality of the high mountain belts of the Pyrenees. Mountain Research and Development 10: 227–233. , , .
- 2005. Global high resolution versus limited area model climate change projections over Europe: quantifying confidence level from PRUDENCE results. Climate Dynamics 25: 653–670. , , , , , , , , , , , .
- 2005. A comparison of statistical downscaling and climate change factor methods: impacts on low flows in the river Thames, United Kingdom. Climatic Change 69: 245–268. , .
- 1997. Adapting to climatic impacts on the supply and demand for water. Climatic Change 37: 141–156. .
- 1999. Enhanced climate change and its detection over the Rocky Mountains. Journal of Climate 12(1): 230–243. , .
- 2005. Climatic change prediction. Climatic Change 73: 239–265. .
- 1991. Approaches to the simulation of regional climate change- a review. Reviews of Geophysics 29: 191–216. , .
- 2004. Mean interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. I. Present-day climate (1961–1990). Climate Dynamics 22: 733–756. , , .
- 1994. Elevation dependency of the surface climate change signal: A model study. Journal of Climate 10: 288–296, discussion. , , , .
- 2001. Quality control and homogeneity of precipitation data in the Southwest of Europe. Journal of Climate 14: 964–978. , , , .
- 1997. Climate change and river runoff in Scandinavia, approaches and challenges. Boreal Environment Research 2(2): 145–162. , .
- 2000. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling 135: 147–186. , .
- 1987. Generalised additive model: some applications. Journal of American Statisticians Association 82: 371–386. , .
- 1998. @ Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: Scientific Report, UKCIP Technical Report No 1. Climatic Research Unit: Norwich, 80. , .
- IPCC. 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assesment Report of the Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Change, HoughtonJT, DingDJ, GriggsM, NoguerM, van der LindenPJ, DaiX, MaskellK, JohnsonCA (eds). Cambridge University Press: New York, 881.
- 2001. Assessing future changes in extreme precipitation over Britain using regional climate model integrations. International Journal of Climatology 21(11): 1337–1356. , .
- 1999. Climate change scenarios for global impacts studies. Global Environmental Change 9: 3–19. , , , , , , .
- 2002. Impact of climate on tourist demand. Climatic Change 55: 429–449. , .
- 2004. Influence of snow accumulation and snowmelt on streamflow in the Central Spanish Pyrenees. International Journal of Hydrological Sciences 49: 787–802. , .
- 2005. A generalised additive model for modelling the spatial distribution of snowpack in the Spanish Pyrenees. Hydrological Processes 19: 3167–3176. , .
- 1971. Estimates of future change of climate due to the increase of carbon dioxide. In Man's Impact on the Climate, MathewsWH, KellogWW, RobinsonGD (eds). MIT Press: Cambridge, MA, 250–264. .
- 1997. Mean and variance change in climate scenarios: methods, agricultural applications, and measures of uncertainty. Climatic Change 35: 367–396. , , .
- 2003. Climate scenarios for the southern U.S. based on GCMs and regional model simulations. Climatic Change 60: 7–35. , , , .
- 1993. Interpolation by regularised spline with tension. Mathematical Geology 25: 641–655. , .
- 1998. Global Energy Perspectives. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, 299. , , .
- 2000. A methodological approach of climatological modelling of air temperature and precipitation through GIS techniques. International Journal of Climatology 20: 1823–1841. , , .
- 2007. Exposure of global mountain systems to climate warming during the 21st Century. Global Environmental Change 17(3–4): 353–375. , , , .
- 2005. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 439: 310–317. , , , .
- 2005. A global comparison of surface and free air temperatures at high elevations. Journal of Geophysical Research 110: D03104. , .
- 2002. Downscaling of global climate models for flood frequency analysis: where are we now? Hydrological Processes 16: 1137–1150. , , .
- 2003. Effect of warmer climate on the depletion of snow-covered area in the Satluj basin in the western Himalayan region. Hydrological Sciences Journal 48(3): 413–425. , .
- 1963. General circulation experiments with the primitive equations. Monthly Weather Review 91(3): 99–164. .
- 2004. AnClim–Software for Time Series Analysis (for Windows). Department of Geography, Faculty of Natural Sciences: Brno, MU, 1.47 MB. .
- 1985. Relations between minimum temperature and topography in Great Britain. Journal of Climatology 5: 503–520. .
- 2001. Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: A review. Climatic Change 50: 77–109. , .
- 2001. Precipitation scenarios over Iberia. A comparison between direct GCM output and different downscaling techniques. Journal of Climate 14: 4422–4446. , .
- 2006. The influence of atmospheric circulation at different spatial scales on winter drought variability through a semiarid climatic gradient in north east Spain. International Journal of Climatology 26(11): 1427–1453. , .
- 2006. Aridity influence on vegetation patterns in the middle Ebro valley (Spain): evaluation by means of AVHRR images and climate interpolation techniques. Journal of Arid Environments 66: 353–375. DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.010.021. , , .
- 2007. Comparison of different procedures to map reference evapotranspiration using geographical information systems and regression-based techniques. International Journal of Climatology 27(8): 1103–1118, ISSN: 0899–8418. , , .
- 1982. Some comments on the evaluation of model performance. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 63: 1309–1313. .
- 2005. Advantages of the mean absolute error (MAE) over the root mean square error (RMSE) in assessing average model performance. Climate Research 30: 79–82. , .