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A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions

  1. David H. Douglass1,*,
  2. John R. Christy2,
  3. Benjamin D. Pearson1,†,
  4. S. Fred Singer3,4

Article first published online: 5 DEC 2007

DOI: 10.1002/joc.1651

Issue

International Journal of Climatology

International Journal of Climatology

Volume 28, Issue 13, pages 1693–1701, 15 November 2008

Additional Information

How to Cite

Douglass, D. H., Christy, J. R., Pearson, B. D. and Singer, S. F. (2008), A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions. Int. J. Climatol., 28: 1693–1701. doi: 10.1002/joc.1651

Author Information

  1. 1

    Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627, USA

  2. 2

    Department of Atmospheric Science and Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35899, USA

  3. 3

    Science and Environmental Policy Project, Arlington, VA 22202, USA

  4. 4

    University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903, USA

  1. †

    VWR International, 5100 W. Henrietta Rd., Rochester, NY 14692, USA.

*Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627, USA.

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 16 OCT 2008
  2. Article first published online: 5 DEC 2007
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 11 OCT 2007
  4. Manuscript Received: 31 MAY 2007

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Keywords:

  • climate trend;
  • troposphere;
  • observations

Abstract

We examine tropospheric temperature trends of 67 runs from 22 ‘Climate of the 20th Century’ model simulations and try to reconcile them with the best available updated observations (in the tropics during the satellite era). Model results and observed temperature trends are in disagreement in most of the tropical troposphere, being separated by more than twice the uncertainty of the model mean. In layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than observed, and, above 8 km, modelled and observed trends have opposite signs. These conclusions contrast strongly with those of recent publications based on essentially the same data. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

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