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Keywords:

  • seasonal precipitation;
  • weighted ensemble;
  • probabilistic forecast;
  • multi-model

Abstract

A weighted ensemble (WE) method is revisited and employed to issue an improved seasonal probability of precipitation (POP) forecast. Nine boreal summer time seasonal precipitation hindcasts obtained from the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble system are used to assess the suitability of the WE approach for seasonal POP predictions. Owing to its performance-based selective nature for assigning weights, the WE method produced marginally superior seasonal POP forecasts compared to the conventional approach. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society